1. EXECUTIVE OVERVIEW AND INVESTMENT THESIS
a. The Investment Opportunity and Strategic Context
| Strategic Pillar | Description and Investment Rationale |
|---|---|
| The Opportunity | USL Eugene represents a professional soccer franchise launching in the United Soccer League (USL League One) for the 2027 season. The opportunity capitalizes on a high-growth equity investment entering one of North America's fastest-expanding and most culturally relevant sports markets at a precise inflection point in market development cycle and consumer preference evolution. The project is designed to capture the generational shift in sports consumption patterns, moving away from traditional broadcast-heavy legacies toward localized, community-driven professional sports properties that command deep emotional loyalty and high-frequency engagement. |
| Micro-Monopoly | Leveraging the strategic insights from the Mid America League investment brief, USL Eugene operates as a "micro-monopoly" in the Willamette Valley. Unlike major metro markets fragmented across 5-7 major league franchises, Eugene offers a singular professional sports identity for a region of nearly 400,000 people. This dominance of the "share of mind" allows for premium sponsorship pricing and higher fan retention rates compared to crowded markets. |
| Asset Diversification | Drawing from the APX Group's strategic portfolio approach, this investment is not merely a sports team but a diversified asset basket. It combines the operating rights of the franchise, the long-term lease of the Civic Park Stadium (a hard asset proxy), and the ancillary revenue streams from adjacent real estate development and year-round event programming. This multi-asset structure significantly de-risks the investment compared to a standalone team operation. |
| Macro Trend | Impact on Investment Thesis |
|---|---|
| Soccer Boom | The core thesis rests on three compelling macro trends converging at precisely the right moment in time. First, an unprecedented boom in American soccer consumption and cultural affinity, reflecting fundamental generational shifts in sports preferences, media consumption patterns, and discretionary spending priorities. This is not cyclical fluctuation; it is structural transformation affecting consumer behavior across demographics and geographic markets, indicating durable multi-decade growth trajectory requiring institutional investor attention and strategic positioning. |
| 2026 World Cup | Second, the 2026 FIFA World Cup co-hosted in the United States alongside Mexico and Canada, which will create a generational spike in sports participation and sponsorship investment across the entire soccer ecosystem. This occurs once per generation and represents a unique convergence of market conditions unlikely to repeat for another 30+ years. The timing is extraordinarily precise for franchise launch and market entry, allowing USL Eugene to ride the wave of a $2.5 billion+ national sponsorship surge. |
| Tech-Enabled Fanbase | Integrating the forward-looking strategies of the APX Group, USL Eugene targets the "digitally native" fan. This demographic demands more than passive viewing; they require active engagement through digital memberships, voting rights on club decisions (jersey designs, charitable partners), and seamless mobile ticketing. By building a "Digital Membership" layer on top of the traditional season ticket base, we unlock a scalable, high-margin revenue stream that extends beyond the physical capacity of the stadium. |
What distinguishes USL Eugene from a traditional sports franchise acquisition is the long-term equity appreciation strategy embedded in its financial model. Rather than seeking near-term operating profits or annual cash distributions, the business model is architected around what has become the gold standard in professional sports globally: building sustainable enterprise value through revenue growth, brand development, operational excellence, and strategic hard asset ownership. This approach generates returns primarily through equity appreciation and valuation multiple expansion rather than near-term cash flow, directly reflecting how successful sports franchises operate worldwide from the Premier League to MLS to the A League and professional sports leagues across Australia and Asia. The goal is to build a $150M+ asset within a decade by controlling the narrative, the stadium experience, and the regional soccer development pipeline. Every strategic decision made today is calibrated to maximize this terminal valuation exit.
b. Founding Metrics and Financial Framework
The financial framework supporting this investment is grounded in real-world USL data collected from nine different clubs across multiple years of operation, conservative operational assumptions derived from peer analysis, and peer-benchmarked projections validated against actual club performance across multiple markets and operational scenarios. We have accounted for the specific nuances of the Willamette Valley economic profile, ensuring that our targets for attendance, sponsorship, and merchandise are rooted in the reality of local disposable income and corporate spending capacity. This is not a "best case" scenario; it is a "likely case" built on hard data.
| Metric | Target | Strategic Context |
|---|---|---|
| Founding Valuation | $25 Million | Conservative relative to current market comparables (Forward Madison, Spokane). |
| Equity Raise | $5 Million | Supports ~20% ownership; provides runway for Year 1-3 strategic deficits. |
| Yr 1 Revenue | $3.65 Million | 45% above USL League One historical median ($2.52M). |
| Yr 1 EBITDA (Consolidated) | ($1.35 Million) | Strategic operating loss designed to fuel brand growth and market capture. |
| Yr 5 EBITDA (Men's Standalone) | $815,000 | Positive 9%+ margins as men's franchise matures; consolidated breakeven in Year 7 due to women's team investment. |
| 10-Year Valuation | $140-155M | Represents 5.6x return on founding valuation over decade. |
2. WHY NOW? THE CONVERGENCE OF MACRO TRENDS
For decades, soccer existed in the margins of American sports consciousness, viewed as a peripheral international sport with limited domestic fan base and minimal commercial value. Today, it is experiencing a fundamental, generation-driven transformation that represents one of the most significant shifts in American sports preferences in the past 50 years. The underlying data demonstrates sustained structural momentum rather than cyclical fluctuation or temporary trend. Unlike the "soccer boom" of the 1970s, which was driven by expensive international stars, today's growth is supported by a massive domestic infrastructure of youth clubs, high-definition global media access, and a digitally native fanbase that consumes the sport in bite-sized, shareable formats.
Fandom Growth Acceleration and Demographic Penetration: From 2019 to 2022, U.S. soccer fandom grew by 22%, adding more than 21 million new fans to the sport's ecosystem over this three-year period. This growth rate far exceeds that of any other major American sport during the same comparative period. The comparative analysis is stark and demonstrates the structural nature of soccer's growth. In a world where media attention is increasingly fragmented, soccer has managed to consolidate its position as the sport of the "future," attracting a cohort that values the fast-paced, continuous action and the lack of commercial interruptions compared to American football or baseball. This engagement is particularly visible in digital metrics, where soccer highlights consistently outperform other sports in the 18-24 age bracket.
- NFL fandom grew at roughly 3% during the same period
- Major League Baseball saw minimal growth or slight decline
- Basketball grew at approximately 8%
- Hockey grew at approximately 5%
- Soccer grew at 22%, representing nearly triple the basketball growth rate
This growth has not decelerated in subsequent years; it has accelerated, indicating sustained structural momentum rather than cyclical fluctuation or temporary trend. Forward projections from leading sports analytics firms including Nielsen Sports and ESPN Research project continued 15-18% annual growth through 2030, driven by demographic trends and the 2026 World Cup catalyst event. This acceleration indicates that soccer's growth is deepening and broadening, not peaking or plateauing. As streaming services like Apple TV+ and ESPN+ continue to secure exclusive rights, the "discovery" phase for soccer is ending, and the "consolidation" phase is beginning, where localized franchises like USL Eugene become essential for capturing local market attention. We are witnessing the birth of a new American sports hierarchy.
Demographic Realignment and Consumer Targeting: The average American soccer fan is 35 years old, compared to 50+ for the NFL and Major League Baseball. More critically, 70% of U.S. soccer fans are under the age of 40. This is a young, digitally native demographic that corporate sponsors are desperately seeking for long-term discretionary spending and brand loyalty development. This demographic targeting reality drives substantial sponsorship investment globally and creates genuine economic moats for sports properties attracting younger audiences with higher lifetime value metrics. For a brand like Nike or Adidas, a soccer fan represents a 40-year consumer lifecycle, whereas a baseball fan may only have 15-20 years of active consumption remaining.
For every advertiser chasing aging baseball fans through traditional broadcast media, hundreds are bidding aggressively for the attention of young urban professionals and millennials who follow soccer through digital platforms, streaming services, social media, and international engagement. This demographic advantage is not cyclical or temporary; it is durable and generational. As today's 25-year-old soccer fan ages through their lifecycle, they will not abandon soccer to switch to baseball or football. Instead, they will bring soccer fandom with them throughout their economic and consumer lifecycle, creating multi-decade loyalty cohorts that traditional sports cannot replicate or compete against directly. USL Eugene's marketing engine is built specifically for this "always-on" digital consumer, maximizing touchpoints across Instagram, TikTok, and Discord.
Cultural Penetration and Community Embedding: Soccer is now the #1 sport among Hispanic Americans across all age groups and the #2 sport among Americans aged 12-24, behind only basketball. This cultural positioning is strategically significant for long-term market development: Hispanic Americans represent the fastest-growing demographic segment in the United States (already comprising approximately 19.5% of the national population as of 2024, and projected to reach 28% by 2060). Gen Z and younger millennials will comprise an ever-larger share of discretionary spending and cultural consumption patterns throughout this decade. Soccer's growth is not dependent on capturing share from existing football or baseball fans; it is fueled by new generations who grew up with soccer as their primary sport from childhood, creating durable brand affiliation and cultural identity. International player recruitment directly addresses cultural affinity and community representation needs across American markets. This makes soccer uniquely "future-proofed" against the demographic shifts currently hollowing out traditional sports fanbases. The club will be a cultural hub, not just a sports venue.
Participation Pipeline and Youth Development Infrastructure: High school soccer participation grew 32% from 2002-2019, while traditional sports like football saw stagnation or decline. This is crucial because youth participation drives long-term fan development and creates sustainable participation pipelines: A 10-year-old soccer player today becomes a 20-year-old professional fan or season ticket holder in 2036. Youth soccer participation has more than doubled since 2000, creating exponential growth in participation base. Over 3 million American youth participate in organized soccer programs annually. This represents the largest participation base for any sport among youth demographics under age 18. Club soccer spending exceeded $1 billion annually by 2023, demonstrating family commitment to sport and willingness to invest in development. By establishing a professional pathway in Eugene, the club becomes the apex of this existing $1B ecosystem, capturing loyalty from the ground up.
e. The 2026 FIFA World Cup: A Once-Per-Generation Catalyst Event
In summer 2026, the United States will co-host the FIFA World Cup alongside Mexico and Canada, representing the largest single sporting event on the planet by global viewership and commercial value. This convergence represents a truly unique moment in sports history and market development: This is the first World Cup hosted in North America since 1994, which created massive cultural impact and permanent shifts in American sports consciousness through mainstream media saturation and celebrity endorsement. The next time the U.S. will host or co-host a World Cup will likely be 2058 or later, depending on future FIFA rotation and selection decisions. In other words, this is a 32-year opportunity occurring right now, representing a unique convergence of market conditions unlikely to repeat for another full generation of consumers and sports fans. It is the "big bang" moment for American soccer 2.0, providing a permanent tailwind for every professional club in the nation.
Scope, Scale and Media Impact: The 2026 World Cup will be massive in scope and cultural impact across American media and sponsorship markets: 78 matches will be hosted across 11 U.S. cities including major markets like Seattle, San Francisco, Los Angeles, New York, Kansas City, and others, with all knockout rounds from the quarterfinals onward played on American soil. Media coverage will be unprecedented in soccer's American history, with multiple networks and international broadcasters competing fiercely for content rights and viewership. Sponsorship investment is expected to double between 2023 and 2027 (from approximately $1.2 billion to $2.4 billion+). Global brands are positioning themselves strategically to capture the attention of a soccer-focused global audience across platforms. Streaming services are investing billions in soccer content rights globally, creating unprecedented media infrastructure. USL Eugene will launch at the absolute zenith of this global media cycle, capturing residual attention and "halo" brand effects that would cost tens of millions to generate in any other year. Every local news cycle in Oregon will be dominated by soccer during our launch window.
Participation and Consumer Engagement Impact: Most importantly for USL Eugene, 62% of Americans surveyed anticipate that the World Cup will increase their personal engagement with soccer beyond the tournament itself, creating sustained engagement patterns. This is not speculative forecast; it is based on historical precedent and measurable outcomes: The 1994 World Cup, hosted in the United States, created a permanent upward shift in American soccer consciousness. It established the foundation for MLS as a viable and growing professional league with institutional validation. It exponentially increased youth soccer participation in the following years and decades. It initiated the gradual cultural shift toward soccer that has accelerated dramatically over the past 30 years. The 2026 World Cup will create an even larger spike in attention and participation, amplified by streaming technology, social media, global connectivity, and demographic trends not present in 1994. We are targeting a "retention rate" of 20-30% of these "World Cup casuals," converting them into permanent local supporters who will attend games at Civic Park.
Strategic Timing for Market Entry: For USL Eugene, launching in 2027 is strategically precise and optimally timed from a business development perspective: The club will begin its inaugural season precisely when national enthusiasm for soccer is peaking due to World Cup coverage. The marketing cost to acquire new fans will be at its lowest point in the football calendar due to concentrated media attention. Sponsorship partners will be actively looking for sports properties to activate their World Cup investments and brand positioning. Media coverage of soccer will be ubiquitous across broadcast and digital platforms, reducing customer acquisition costs. Youth interest in soccer will spike dramatically, creating recruitment opportunities for academy programs and community partnerships. This is not luck—it is strategic timing embedded intentionally in the business plan to maximize initial capital efficiency and drive Year 1 over-performance.
f. The United Soccer League's Strategic Ascendance
The USL itself has become a powerful, well-capitalized league ecosystem with professional infrastructure comparable to established second-tier leagues globally. The organization now operates over 70 professional clubs across three divisions: USL Championship (top division): 24 clubs competing at professional level; USL League One (second division): 18 clubs as of the 2026 season, with USL Eugene among the expansion cohort; USL League Two (pre-professional division): 74 clubs across North America. This makes the USL the largest professional soccer structure in North America by franchise count, surpassing all other professional leagues combined by significant margin and creating unparalleled brand recognition among soccer enthusiasts. The league's "European-style" model of tiered competition and regional rivalries has proven more resilient and scalable than the central-ownership model used by MLS, allowing for more authentic local brand development.
Broadcasting and Media Partnership Excellence: The league has secured a national broadcast partnership with ESPN, meaning every USL match is broadcast live on ESPN+ with professional multi-camera production and substantial promotional support. This was not possible five years ago and represents a fundamental sea change in the legitimacy and professionalization of lower-tier American soccer. Professional broadcast infrastructure legitimizes the league globally and creates durable competitive advantage through established distribution relationships. ESPN's commitment signals institutional validation and creates barriers to entry for competing leagues or alternative soccer property investments. For USL Eugene, this means every home match is a 90-minute commercial for the city and the club, broadcast to millions of potential national viewers, providing our sponsors with reach that extends far beyond the Willamette Valley.
Disciplined Expansion Strategy: The league is in a sustained expansion phase with disciplined market selection criteria. Seven new USL League One franchises are confirmed for 2027, including Eugene. More than 30 additional teams are projected to join the league between 2024 and 2030 across all divisions. This expansion is not haphazard or driven by financial desperation; it is strategic and disciplined. The USL is carefully selecting underserved mid-sized markets with specific characteristics including strong local ownership and financial backing, passionate fan bases and demonstrated sports culture, committed municipal support and infrastructure investment, and demographic profiles favorable for soccer fandom. Eugene meets all these criteria comprehensively and represents exactly the market profile the league is targeting for sustainable long-term growth and profitability. The league is currently "land-grabbing" the best available mid-sized markets in the U.S., and Eugene is considered a top-tier acquisition due to its high-quality stadium asset and sports-heavy culture.
Valuation and Transaction Activity: Recent franchise transactions demonstrate strong investor confidence and growing market recognition: Median franchise valuation: $40 million for USL franchises across Championship and League One divisions. Revenue valuation multiples: 8-12x (median 10.8x), significantly higher than traditional sports valuations. This reflects confidence in the league's long-term trajectory and growth potential among institutional investors. Transaction volume increasing year-over-year, indicating strong investor appetite and market momentum. USL Eugene's founding valuation of $25 million is conservative relative to recent comparables and indicates significant upside potential if the franchise executes on its business plan and market conditions meet baseline expectations. The valuation represents substantial discount to current market trading multiples and provides margin of safety for equity investors. Investors entering now are essentially buying into the ground floor of a league that is positioning itself to be the dominant "Second Tier" of the world's most popular sport in the world's most lucrative sports market. As the league continues to professionalize and consolidate, we expect these multiples to migrate toward the 15x-20x range seen in mature European markets.
3. EUGENE'S STRATEGIC MARKET POSITION AND COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGES
a. Demographic and Market Opportunity Analysis
Eugene is a mid-sized American city with approximately 383,000 people in Lane County. This population is entirely sufficient to support a professional sports franchise. Successful USL clubs operate profitably in markets ranging from 200,000 to 500,000 people: Spokane Velocity (approximately 230,000 population, highly successful operation); Forward Madison FC (approximately 291,000 population, profitable and growing significantly); Albuquerque (approximately 560,000 population, strong consistent performer); Louisville (approximately 620,000 population, Championship-level success story). Eugene squarely fits this sustainable professional sports market range and demonstrates demographic characteristics favorable for soccer specifically. More importantly, Eugene's demographics are exceptionally favorable for soccer, representing an ideal market profile for professional franchise launch and sustained growth through the critical first decade. The city's growth rate of ~1.2% annually outpaces the national average, ensuring a consistent influx of new, sports-hungry residents who are looking for local identity.
b. University Population and Student Demographics
The University of Oregon has over 24,000 students concentrated in the core 18-34 demographic that forms the backbone of professional soccer fandom globally. These students are digitally native and value experiential entertainment, community-engaged and support local institutions actively, represent a concentrated and accessible audience for ticket sales and merchandise, and drive disproportionate sports attendance during academic year. University communities drive disproportionate sports attendance and engagement in mid-sized markets. Oregon students represent a captive audience during the academic year (September-May) and a ready-made early adopter base for a new professional franchise launch. The university's global brand presence also means that USL Eugene merchandise has the potential for viral breakout success beyond the local region, leveraging the "Ducks" cultural ecosystem. We have structured our matchday schedule to maximize alignment with the university academic calendar.
The student demographic will be critical for building season ticket base, merchandise sales, and social media engagement during the formative brand-building years. University partnerships create built-in marketing channels and community credibility that would otherwise require substantial paid acquisition spending. Student discount programs, group ticket sales, and educational partnerships with the athletic department create structural advantages for fan acquisition that independent professional teams in non-college towns cannot match. We envision a "Student Supporter Section" that becomes a legendary part of the USL broadcast, creating a vibrant, high-energy atmosphere that translates well to television and social media content. This "rowdy" atmosphere is exactly what sponsors look for in sports property activation.
c. Hispanic Community and Cultural Alignment
Lane County's Hispanic population of approximately 40,000 people (10%+ of the total population) is significant, strategically important, and rapidly growing. Census data projects Hispanic population will exceed 15% of Lane County population by 2035. Critically, soccer is the #1 sport among Hispanic Americans across all demographic segments and regions. This means that USL Eugene will benefit from pre-existing community passion for soccer, reducing marketing cost to build core fanbase and accelerating path to profitability. In many American cities, soccer must compete fiercely for immigrant and Hispanic community attention against established sports traditions and entertainment options. In Eugene, there is a ready-made audience that already follows soccer at the youth level and would be enthusiastic supporters of a professional team representing their community and culture. This cultural alignment creates competitive moat against alternative sports properties and represents strategic market advantage rarely available in American expansion markets. The team's marketing and community engagement strategies can directly target this demographic with culturally resonant messaging, Spanish-language content, and community partnerships. This is not just about marketing; it is about building a club that reflects the actual cultural fabric of the Willamette Valley. We are building a "people's club" that unites the region's diverse populations.
d. Educational and Income Demographics
Lane County has a college-educated population of approximately 30% (bachelor's degree or higher per U.S. Census ACS data), with a strong concentration of higher-education attainment driven by the University of Oregon and Lane Community College, suggesting demonstrated willingness to spend on entertainment and sporting events. The median household income is approximately $70,000 (per 2023 Census ACS estimates, roughly in line with the national median), which, when combined with other demographic advantages and favorable price points, supports a strong addressable market. High propensity for entertainment spending is evident among younger demographic segments and university population. Professional soccer is positioned as affordable family entertainment, with ticket prices of $15-35 compared to $50-150+ for MLS or NFL games, maximizing addressable market size and penetration potential significantly. Our "pricing value index" is significantly higher than competing regional entertainment options like high-end concerts or professional games in Portland, making us the default choice for middle-class families and students who want a professional sports experience without the travel or the exorbitant cost.
e. Sports Culture and Civic Identity
Eugene's identity as a "sports city" is not incidental to the market opportunity. The city is known nationally as "TrackTown USA," a reference to its historic dominance in track and field athletics over decades and the Prefontaine Classic track meet held annually. University of Oregon athletic programs are nationally prominent and consistently compete at highest levels, commanding substantial community support and media coverage. The football team Autzen Stadium regularly draws 54,000+ fans per game, demonstrating substantial sports enthusiasm. The community has demonstrated consistent capacity to organize around sports and build civic identity through athletic achievement and fandom. Critically, this strong sports culture is not satisfied by the current sports market. There is no professional sports team to which residents can point and claim as their own, creating a psychological and economic opening for a new professional franchise with genuine market opportunity for brand building and community development. USL Eugene fills a void in the civic soul of the city, providing a professional sporting standard that matches the excellence of the university's programs.
f. The Competitive Void: First-Mover Advantage and Market Positioning
This is perhaps the most reflection critical competitive advantage distinguishing Eugene from most American markets: Eugene has no professional sports franchises whatsoever. Zero. None. This creates what might be called a "civic branding opportunity" with exceptional strategic value. While the University of Oregon Ducks command enormous attention and loyalty (particularly the football team, which draws 54,000+ fans per game), there is no professional sports property in the city. USL Eugene will be the first and only professional team available to Eugene residents and the Willamette Valley region. In business terms, this first-mover advantage is extraordinarily difficult to overstate. USL Eugene will be the entire professional sports market. Every local corporation seeking to associate with professional sports will look to USL Eugene. Every fan seeking to support a hometown professional team will have a single choice. Every media outlet covering professional sports will default to USL Eugene coverage. This concentration of attention and sponsorship budget is extraordinarily valuable and durable across the critical brand-building period. We are not competing for a share of the "pro sports" wallet; we are the *entire* wallet. This allows us to command higher sponsorship rates than clubs in larger, more saturated markets.
This advantage is temporary but valuable. It will persist throughout the team's first 5-10 years—precisely the period during which brand identity is established, fan loyalty is formed, organizational culture is embedded in the community, and competitive moats are created through community relationships and institutional entrenchment. By the time a potential competitor might enter the market, USL Eugene will have established deep roots in the community, making displacement or fragmentation extremely difficult or impossible even with superior resources or financial backing. The "legacy effect" of being the first professional team in a growing city creates a barrier to entry that is mathematically worth millions in discounted future cash flow. Our brand will be synonymous with Eugene sports.
g. Target Audience Segmentation
Based on detailed market analysis, we have identified four distinct primary segments that comprise the core fan base. Each segment requires a tailored engagement strategy to maximize lifetime value.
- Size: ~85,000 individuals
- Profile: Digital natives, social media engaged, values-driven.
- Target: 12,750 annual attendance; $293,500 revenue potential.
- Activation: Supporter groups, university partnerships, digital-first marketing.
- Size: ~120,000 individuals
- Profile: High per-capita spending, value safety and convenience.
- Target: 15,360 annual attendance; $353,280 revenue potential.
- Activation: Family packages, Kids' Zones, youth soccer tie-ins.
- Size: ~40,000 individuals
- Profile: Highest affinity for soccer, underserved by current market.
- Target: 8,000 annual attendance; $184,000 revenue potential.
- Activation: Bilingual marketing, culturally themed nights, community partnerships.
- Size: ~25,000 individuals (youth/parents/coaches)
- Profile: Pre-existing interest, "pathway to pro" aspirations.
- Target: 5,000 annual attendance; $115,000 revenue potential.
- Activation: Academy integration, youth clinics, group sales.
h. Infrastructure Asset: Civic Park Stadium and Capital Structure
| Strategic Infrastructure Asset | Specifications | Market Advantage |
|---|---|---|
| Civic Park Stadium | Purpose-Built (2024) | Eliminates $80M Development Cost |
| Media Suite | ESPN+ Multi-Cam Ready | Immediate National Visibility |
| Student Proximity | Walking Distance to UO | Captive High-Volume Demographic |
| Commercial Land | 25+ Adjacent Acres | Long-Term Real Estate Monetization |
Eugene's municipal government invested significantly in sports infrastructure development at substantial public expense. Specifically, the city completed construction of Civic Park Stadium in 2024—a new, purpose-built, soccer-specific stadium with a capacity of 3,500 seats and professional-grade infrastructure. This is a turnkey asset that eliminates one of the largest and most politically fraught barriers to professional sports expansion: stadium infrastructure and capital requirements. Building a new stadium for professional sports typically costs $60-100 million and requires 5-10 years of design, environmental review, political negotiation, permitting, and construction. This substantial capital expenditure is almost always the primary limiting factor in sports franchise expansion, particularly in mid-sized markets where alternative funding sources are limited. USL Eugene avoids this entire problem entirely and completely. The stadium is effectively a "subsidized gift" that de-risks the entire investment by 70%, allowing us to focus 100% of our capital on growth and talent acquisition.
The stadium exists and is professionally managed with ESPN-quality broadcasting infrastructure, multiple cameras and production capabilities ready for professional broadcast, locker rooms, training infrastructure, and administrative offices meeting professional standards, field dimensions compliant with FIFA and USL specifications with professional maintenance regime, and parking and transportation infrastructure adequate for 3,500 capacity with room for future expansion. This is not a minor competitive advantage. It is the difference between a franchise requiring $15 million in total capital (of which $8+ million is earmarked for stadium development and financing) and a franchise requiring $5 million total capital (which goes entirely to operations, marketing, team building, and growth investment). The existence of Civic Park Stadium is the foundation upon which the entire USL Eugene opportunity rests and is built. Our lease agreement allows us to capture nearly 100% of matchday revenue (parking, concessions, tickets), which is a rare and highly lucrative arrangement in the world of pro sports. We have also secured naming rights potential that will be purely additive to our Year 1 revenue.
i. Stadium Expansion Plan (Years 2-3)
To accommodate the anticipated launch of the USL Super League Women's Team in 2029 and growing demand from the men's side, a detailed expansion plan is already in place. The objective is to increase capacity from 3,500 to 5,000 seats with a targeted investment of approximately $1.0 million. Key components include:
- Terraced Standing/Seating: +1,000 capacity
- Premium VIP Seating: +300 capacity (high margin revenue)
- Pitch-Side Premium Tables: +50 capacity (exclusive hospitality)
- Additional General Seating: +150 capacity
The timeline for this expansion involves design and permitting in 2028, with construction scheduled for Q2-Q3 2028 during the league off-season to minimize operational disruption.
4. THE BUSINESS MODEL AND STRATEGIC FRAMEWORK
a. The "Hold and Grow" Philosophy and Valuation Model
Understanding USL Eugene's business model requires understanding a fundamental truth about professional sports franchises in the 21st century: they are not designed to generate substantial operating profits in their early years. Instead, they are architected to appreciate in value over time, generating returns for investors primarily through equity appreciation and valuation multiple expansion rather than cash flow distribution. This is a critical distinction separating professional sports from traditional businesses and venture capital models. We are not selling tickets to pay the electricity bill; we are building an institutional-grade cultural asset that will be worth 6x our entry price within a decade. The scarcity of professional sports franchises globally ensures that as long as the revenue grows, the valuation will grow at a disconnected, higher rate. This is the "Sports scarcity premium" that has driven billionaire entry into the sector over the last 15 years.
A typical USL club in its inaugural year generates revenue of approximately $2.5 million but incurs operating expenses of $5 million or more, resulting in a net operating loss of $2.5 million or greater. This loss is expected and planned. It does not represent a failed business model or poor management; it represents a deliberate, strategic choice to invest heavily in market share acquisition, brand development, and competitive quality at the deliberate expense of short-term profitability and cash flow generation. Why is this rational and optimal? Because the value of a professional sports franchise is determined almost entirely by its revenue trajectory and growth potential, not by its current profitability or cash flow generation. Data from recent USL franchise transactions shows that clubs are valued at 8-12x revenue multiples, not at multiples of EBITDA or net income. This means a club with $5 million in revenue is valued at $40-60 million, regardless of whether it is currently profitable or generating positive cash flow. USL Eugene's financial model embraces this reality explicitly and transparently. The projections show intentional operating losses in Years 1-3, a gradual transition to breakeven in Year 5, and modest profitability in Years 5 and beyond. The value creation is not coming from these operating profits; it is coming from revenue growth and from the attendant valuation multiple expansion that occurs when a franchise demonstrates sustainable revenue growth and market penetration. We are essentially arbitrageurs of localized sports emotion.
b. Operational Execution and Timeline (2026-2027)
The path to the inaugural season is mapped out with precision to ensure all infrastructure, personnel, and commercial assets are in place. This timeline highlights critical milestones.
| Phase | Timeline | Key Milestones & Objectives |
|---|---|---|
| Pre-Launch | Q1 2026 | Ownership structure finalization; Board of Directors established; Franchise agreement execution; Financial assurance verification. |
| Brand Foundation | Q2-Q3 2026 | Development of team name, crest, and colors; Website and digital infrastructure build; Tier 1 sponsorship outreach (target 2-3 partners). |
| Brand Launch | Q3 2026 | Official Brand Unveil Event (Aug 2026); Launch of Season Ticket Deposit Campaign (target 1,500 deposits); Merchandise sales go live. |
| Team Building | Q3-Q4 2026 | Hiring of Head Coach (target Sept 2026); Player recruitment begins; Tier 2 & 3 sponsorship closings. |
| Pre-Season | Q1 2027 | Training camp (Jan 2027); Friendly matches; Final roster capability; Stadium operations stress tests. |
| Inaugural Season | Mar 2027 | Home Opener (Late March 2027) broadcast on ESPN+; Regular season operations commence. |
c. Risk Analysis and Mitigation Strategies
Key Risk Factors and Downside Scenarios: While USL Eugene's investment thesis is compelling, institutional investors must carefully evaluate material risk factors that could impact returns. We have modeled three distinct failure states: Macroeconomic Demand Destruction, Competitive Incursion, and Operational Execution Failure. Our mitigation strategies for each are robust and funded through the initial equity raise, ensuring that we can survive even a significant market shock without requiring a capital call.
| Risk Factor | Analysis and Mitigation Strategy |
|---|---|
| Macroeconomic Risk | A sustained economic recession or significant downturn in consumer discretionary spending could compress attendance, sponsorship revenue, and merchandise sales simultaneously. This represents the most systemic risk to the investment thesis. Mitigation: The conservative revenue projections (Year 1 at 2,580 attendance, 41% above historical median) provide substantial buffer against moderate demand destruction. Professional soccer as affordable family entertainment ($15-35 tickets) has greater resilience than premium-priced sports. Season ticket structures provide revenue visibility and reduce cash flow volatility during downturns. Multi-year sponsorship commitments lock in revenue even if economic conditions deteriorate mid-contract. Our "recession-proof" price point ensures we remain the primary entertainment choice even when households tighten their budgets. |
| Execution Risk | Franchise leadership quality, player acquisition, coaching staff effectiveness, and operational execution are critical variables that could materially impact on-field performance and fan engagement. Substandard performance could drive lower attendance and reduced merchandise sales. Mitigation: Recruitment of experienced USL management team with proven track record from successful franchises (3+ years USL experience required for GM position). Competitive investment in coaching staff ($400K budget) reflects commitment to competitive quality. Academy player development systems reduce long-term player acquisition costs and create community goodwill through youth development. We are hiring "winners" who have already scaled clubs in similar markets like Omaha or Madison. |
| Competitive Displacement | While Eugene currently has no professional sports franchises, this could theoretically change if another sports property enters the market during the critical brand-building period. Such displacement could fragment sponsorship spending and fan attention. Mitigation: First-mover institutional advantages (community relationships, established brand, stadium control, media coverage) create substantial barriers to competitive entry. By Year 5-7, USL Eugene's brand equity would be sufficiently established to defend against new competitors. The cost for a new competitor to build a stadium that rivals Civic Park would be $80M+, a massive financial deterrent that effectively secures our monopoly for the foreseeable future. |
Revenue Stream Concentration: Sponsorship represents 36.5% of Year 1 revenue, creating potential concentration risk if major partners default or decline to renew. Ticket sales represent 34.9%, dependent on attendance assumptions that could underperform. Mitigation: Diversification across three sponsorship tiers reduces dependence on any single partner (no single sponsor exceeds 12% of revenue). Conservative sponsorship projections (63% of potential pipeline) provide substantial upside if execution exceeds baseline. Multi-year sponsorship contracts (3-5 year terms) provide revenue stability across economic cycles. We have already secured "soft commitments" from three regional anchors that cover 40% of our Year 1 sponsorship target, providing immediate cash flow confidence.
5. OPERATIONAL EXCELLENCE AND MANAGEMENT FRAMEWORK
a. Three Strategic Pillars for Value Creation
The value creation strategy for USL Eugene rests on three interdependent pillars working in concert to drive revenue growth and market penetration. We believe that by excelling in these three areas, the club becomes more than a sports team—it becomes a high-margin, institutional-grade media and real estate enterprise. Our management framework is built on high-accountability OKRs (Objectives and Key Results) that are monitored monthly by our executive committee.
Pillar 1: Competitive Success and On-Field Performance: Professional sports are entertainment products. If the product is not competitive, people will not consume it. The operational imperative is building a roster capable of competing at USL League One level. This means substantial investment in player salaries ($1.087M annually), experienced coaching staff ($400K), and supporting infrastructure. USL Eugene's financial projections assume mid-table finish in Year 1 (10-14 wins out of 34-game season), playoff qualification by Year 2-3 (reaching USL League One playoffs), and league contention by Year 5+. This is achievable and realistic given market support. Competitive success drives fan engagement through multiple mechanisms: winning increases attendance (+8-15% per additional playoff appearance), merchandise sales (+20-25% per playoff qualification), media coverage (local and regional broadcast expansion), and corporate sponsorship (higher renewal rates and expanded tier participation). Winning is the best marketing department in sports, and we are budgeting for the best scouting network in the USL.
Pillar 2: Community Integration and Social Impact: Professional sports franchises are expected to be community institutions. USL Eugene will establish authentic nonprofit partnerships focused on youth development, diversity and inclusion, education, and community benefit. Partnership with local youth soccer clubs establishes "pathway to pro" programs connecting young players (ages 10-17) to professional academy. Professional youth academy (ages 12-18) serves as talent pipeline and community institution, creating revenue streams through academy participation fees ($2,000-5,000 annually per player). This pillar creates genuine loyalty and emotional connection, transforming casual fans into passionate supporters. Fans viewing the club as community institution spend substantially more on season tickets ($400-800 annually vs. $300-500 for casual fans), merchandise ($150-300 vs. $75-100), and donations. It creates competitive moats against future displacement and generates philanthropic revenue streams currently absent from typical USL business models. In Eugene, "community" is the currency of survival and we intend to be the richest bank in town.
Pillar 3: Hard Asset Ownership and Real Estate Value: Ownership or long-term control of Civic Park Stadium is strategic asset that anchors franchise valuation. As Eugene grows over the decade (projected 6-8% population growth through 2035), area surrounding stadium becomes increasingly valuable real estate. USL Eugene's control of this stadium positions franchise to participate in value creation directly through potential stadium expansion (add 1,500-2,000 seats by Year 8-10), adjacent commercial development, or eventual REIT-style real estate monetization. Over 10-year horizon, real estate component could potentially exceed operating business value. Stadium sits on 25+ acres of municipal-controlled land with undeveloped parcels suitable for restaurants, retail, and mixed-use development. This real estate positioning provides additional value creation pathway beyond traditional sports operating revenue. We are not just a tenant; we are the primary "traffic generator" for a new urban district that will define the city's southward expansion.
b. The "Path to Pro" Technical Curriculum
The USL Eugene Academy is not merely a youth club; it is a high-performance development ecosystem designed to produce professional-grade talent. Our "Holistic Development Model" integrates technical skill acquisition, tactical intelligence, physical conditioning, and character development into a unified curriculum. This system is overseen by the Technical Director and staffed by licensed professional coaches, ensuring consistent methodology from U13 through the First Team. By partnering with Lane Community College and local school districts, we ensure that academic progress parallels athletic development, providing a balanced pathway for student-athletes.
Critically, the academy serves as a strategic asset for roster management. The USL's "Homegrown Player" rule allows the franchise to sign local talent developed within our academy system without counting their salaries against the league's salary cap. This provides a significant competitive advantage, allowing us to allocate cap space to high-impact veteran signings while filling roster depth with cost-controlled, high-potential local talent. We project that by Year 5, approximately 20% of the First Team roster will be comprised of academy graduates, significantly reducing player acquisition costs while deepening community connection. This "farm system" approach mimics the successful models of European clubs like Ajax or Southampton, adapted for the American Northwest.
c. Leadership Team & Governance Structure
Sat Dhinsa serves as the Majority Owner and Chairman. As the founder and principal of Vanridge Properties, a Vancouver, BC-based residential real estate development company, Mr. Dhinsa has over 25+ years of experience developing and selling residential communities, generating over $500 million in sales. His track record demonstrates deep operational discipline, financial acumen, and the ability to navigate complex municipal relationships. With a net worth exceeding $30 million, he comfortably surpasses the USL requirement of $20 million minimum, providing the franchise with substantial financial stability.
Dave Calas (Managing Director): Brings 15+ years of professional soccer operations experience, including successful management of Lane United FC. He will oversee day-to-day franchise management.
John Calas (Technical Director): Brings 12+ years of professional coaching and player development experience. He will oversee player recruitment, coaching staff, and on-field competitive strategy.
d. Advisory Board Structure
USL Eugene will establish a best-in-class advisory board to guide strategic decisions. Members will commit 3–4 hours per month and be compensated with equity options (0.25–0.5%) or annual retainers. The board will include experts in:
- Sports Business & Operations: Former MLS/USL executives.
- Finance & Investment: Expert in sports finance/PE.
- Real Estate Development: Specialist in sports-anchored mixed-use projects.
- Marketing & Sponsorships: Senior brand executive.
6. FINANCIAL ARCHITECTURE, REVENUE MECHANISMS, AND OPERATIONAL PROJECTIONS
"USL Eugene's control of Civic Park positions the franchise to participate in value creation directly through adjacent commercial development, creating a durable REIT-style foundation for the sports operating business. This structure allows us to capture value even in seasons where on-field performance fluctuates, making the asset an ideal hedge against pure sporting volatility."
a. Year 1 Revenue Projections: $3.65 Million Total
USL Eugene's financial foundation rests on four primary revenue streams with clear underlying assumptions and peer-benchmarked data. These streams are designed to be mutually reinforcing: high ticket sales drive concessions, which drive merchandise visibility, which drives sponsorship value. We have avoided reliance on single-shot broadcast deals, focusing instead on controllable, localized cash flow.
| Revenue Stream | Target Value | % Contribution | Primary Scaling Vector |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ticket Sales | $1.24 Million | 34.0% | Scarcity Pricing & Attendance |
| Sponsorship | $1.30 Million | 35.6% | Tiered Corporate Alignment |
| Concessions | $683,000 | 18.7% | Per-Capita Matchday Spending |
| Merchandise | $427,000 | 11.7% | Regional & Digital Brand Reach |
1. Ticket Sales and Attendance Modeling
Year 1 attendance target of 2,580 fans per game across 18 home matches (73.7% capacity utilization). Tiered pricing strategy: Premium Seats (20% of capacity): $45-55 per ticket; Standard Premium (35% of capacity): $25-30 per ticket; General Admission (45% of capacity): $15-20 per ticket. Weighted average: $23 per ticket across all tiers. This conservative projection provides upside if market penetration exceeds baseline. Comparable USL clubs achieve $18-27 average ticket prices; Eugene's $23 average is conservative given demographics. Upside scenario of 3,200 average attendance (91% capacity) would generate $1.54M ticket revenue, representing 25% revenue boost from single variable. Our "Scarcity Engine" strategy will intentionally under-sell general admission in early months to drive premium seat sales and long-term season ticket waitlists, which has been the hallmark of Forward Madison FC's success.
2. Sponsorship Architecture and Tiers
Three distinct tiers with specific targeting: Tier 1 Presenting Partners ($300-500K each, exclusive rights to specific category): Projected at $1.0M from 2-3 partners; Tier 2 Pillar Partners ($100-200K each, category exclusivity but non-exclusive partnership): $650K from 6-8 partners; Tier 3 Community Partners ($15-50K each, community-focused smaller businesses): $400K from 20+ partners. Total potential pipeline: $2.05M. Pro forma conservative projection: $1.3M (63% of potential). This conservative projection reflects 18-month sales cycle lag and slower corporate decision-making in Year 1. Years 2-3 sponsorship revenue projected to reach $1.9M-2.2M as pipeline materializes and renewal rates exceed 90%. We are positioning the jersey front as a "Tech Anchor" opportunity for the growing Silicon Shire corridor, capturing institutional budgets that have previously gone to Portland properties.
3. Concessions and Matchday Economics
Average attendance 2,580, per-capita spending $12-15, generating $31-39K per game or $683K across 18 matches. This reflects hot dog, beer, soda, snacks, merchandise sales at games. Conservative relative to MLS ($15-25) and USL typical ($12-18) per-capita concession spending. Upside to $850K if attendance exceeds 3,000 or spending increases to $18+ per capita. We will utilize local "food truck" culture to keep operational overhead low while providing premium, high-demand food options that drive higher margins than traditional stadium fare. We expect a significant spike in beer revenue given Eugene's craft brewery density.
4. Merchandise Sales and Brand Penetration
Per-capita spending $8-10 per fan generates $427K annually. Combines on-site retail at stadium ($300K estimated from 2,580 attendance x $5.80 per capita) and e-commerce and online sales ($127K estimated from digital reach beyond Eugene metro area). Upside to $580K if online reach expands nationally or per-capita spending reaches $12+ through premium product lines. Our "Portland/Eugene" aesthetic (minimalist, high-quality, wearable outside the stadium) is designed for high retention and lifestyle integration, moving beyond standard "replica jersey" sales. We are aiming to be a "top 5" USL merchandise brand within 3 years by leveraging the Oregon design ecosystem.
b. Operating Expenses and Multi-Year Trajectory
Total Year 1 Expenses: $5.09 Million. We have modeled these expenses with a +15% contingency buffer to account for unexpected travel costs or inflation in facility maintenance. Every dollar of expense is analyzed for its ROI on fan acquisition or brand value expansion. We are prioritizing "above-the-line" spend on the fan experience to ensure high retention in the critical first season.
| Category | Amount | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Player Payroll | $1,087,000 | Roster of 24-26 players at USL League One competitive levels |
| Coach & Staff | $400,000 | Head coach ($180K), assistants, sports science, video analysis |
| Team Operations | $1,452,000 | Training, travel, equipment, medical support, facilities |
| COGS | $597,000 | Merchandise acquisition costs (40% of retail sales) |
| Marketing | $200,000 | Fan acquisition, sponsorship activation, social media |
| General & Admin | $768,000 | Management, finance, HR, legal, insurance, facilities |
| Total Year 1 | $5,091,000 | Strategic Growth Phase (men's team standalone expenses) |
Multi-Year Trajectory and EBITDA Scaling (Men's Team Standalone Operations)
| Operating Year | Revenue Profile | EBITDA Performance | Maturation Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $3.65 Million | ($1.44 Million) | Market Entry Phase |
| Year 2 | $4.29 Million | ($1.25 Million) | Brand Establishment |
| Year 3 | $6.10 Million | ($100,000) | Breakeven Approach |
| Year 4 | $7.80 Million | ($200,000) | Revenue Acceleration |
| Year 5 | $9.10 Million | $815,000 | Sustainable Maturation |
| Year 6 | $10.9 Million | $1.20 Million | Operational Efficiency |
| Year 7+ | Scaled Proj. | 8-10% Margins | Stabilized Operations |
Operational Analysis: Strategic vs. Fail-State EBITDA
The Year 1 Operating Loss (EBITDA) of ($1.35 million) on a consolidated basis, representing a negative 37% margin, is explicitly categorized as a **strategic investment** rather than a business failure. This capital deployment is architected to accelerate market share and brand development during the critical launch cycle. Failure to spend at this level in Year 1 would result in a "minor league" perception that permanently caps valuation multiples. We are choosing to buy the market today to own the value tomorrow. This "spend to win" approach is what differentiates successful sports startups from failed grassroots experiments.
c. Deep Dive: Consolidated 10-Year Financial Forecast (Men's + Women's Teams Combined)
The following data presents the granular year-by-year financial scaling for the consolidated enterprise, incorporating the introduction of the USL Super League women's team in Year 3 and subsequent revenue acceleration. Note: The consolidated EBITDA trajectory differs materially from the men's team standalone table above because it includes the additional operating expenses and revenue associated with the women's team launch from Year 3 onward. The men's team achieves standalone profitability by Year 5; the consolidated enterprise reaches breakeven in Year 7 due to the investment phase of the women's team.
| Year | Total Revenue | Total Expenses | EBITDA | EBITDA % | Ent. Valuation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yr 1 | $3.65 Million | $5.00 Million | ($1.35 Million) | (37.0%) | $25.6 Million |
| Yr 2 | $4.28 Million | $5.50 Million | ($1.22 Million) | (28.5%) | $32.1 Million |
| Yr 3 | $6.08 Million | $7.38 Million | ($1.30 Million) | (21.4%) | $48.6 Million |
| Yr 4 | $7.58 Million | $8.68 Million | ($1.10 Million) | (14.5%) | $68.2 Million |
| Yr 5 | $9.05 Million | $9.77 Million | ($0.72 Million) | (7.9%) | $86.0 Million |
| Yr 6 | $10.38 Million | $10.73 Million | ($0.35 Million) | (3.4%) | $101.7 Million |
| Yr 7 | $11.70 Million | $11.63 Million | $0.075 Million | 0.6% | $117.0 Million |
| Yr 8 | $12.93 Million | $12.48 Million | $0.45 Million | 3.4% | $131.8 Million |
| Yr 9 | $13.95 Million | $13.28 Million | $0.67 Million | 4.8% | $145.1 Million |
| Yr 10 | $14.78 Million | $14.07 Million | $0.71 Million | 4.8% | $155.2 Million |
d. Modeling Methodology & Key Assumptions
To ensure robust and defensible financial projections, our modeling process utilizes a Zero-Based Budgeting (ZBB) approach. Rather than simply adjusting previous year's figures, every expense line item is built from the ground up annually, justified by current operational needs and market rates. This methodology eliminates legacy inefficiencies and ensures capital allocation is strictly aligned with strategic growth priorities.
Key assumptions underpinning the 10-year model include:
- Inflationary Adjustments: A baseline 3.0% annual inflation rate is applied to all general operating expenses (travel, facilities, administrative).
- Salary Cap Growth: Player payroll is modeled with a 5.0% annual growth rate, anticipating league-wide salary cap increases and competitive wage inflation.
- Revenue Discounting: To maintain conservatism, all projected sponsorship and ticket revenue figures include a "risk discount factor" of 15-20% below market potential in Years 1-2, gradually reducing as brand equity stabilizes.
- Ancillary Revenue: Merchandise and concession per-capita spending is modeled to grow at 4.0% annually, reflecting improved product mix and deeper fan engagement over time.
7. VALUATION, RETURN ANALYSIS, AND INVESTMENT SCENARIOS
a. Valuation Framework and Multiple Expansion Trajectory
Professional sports franchises are valued using revenue multiples capturing growth potential. USL franchises trade at 8-12x revenue multiples; median 10.8x based on recent transactions (Spokane: 10.5x, Madison: 12.4x, Omaha: 11.9x). The following trajectory outlines the enterprise valuation progression as the franchise demonstrates sustainable revenue growth and operational execution, leading to significant multiple expansion and de-risking over the 10-year cycle. As the USL system moves toward a potential promotion/relegation model or closer integration with MLS, these multiples are expected to see significant "structural uplift." We have modeled for a conservative 10.5x exit, which leaves significant room for "upside alpha" if the league achieves its growth targets.
| Timeline | Revenue Target | Applied Multiple | Enterprise Value (EV) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Founding Phase | -- | -- | $25,000,000 |
| Year 1 Operations | $3.65 Million | 7.0x | $25,550,000 |
| Year 2 Acceleration | $4.3 Million | 7.5x | $32,063,000 |
| Year 3 Playoff Cycle | $6.1 Million | 8.0x | $48,640,000 |
| Year 5 Maturation | $9.1 Million | 9.5x | $85,975,000 |
| Year 10 Scaled Exit | $14.8 Million | 10.5x | $155,190,000 |
b. Strategic Investor Return Scenarios (5-Year and 10-Year Horizons)
The financial model accounts for varying levels of market penetration and operational efficiency. The following scenarios assume an initial investment of $5.0 million representing a 20% equity stake in the franchise. These outcomes demonstrate high resilience, as the downside scenario still achieves above-market equity returns despite significant underperformance relative to baseline targets. Even in a "Zero Growth" scenario, the residual value of the expansion slot and stadium lease ensures capital preservation. We are effectively selling a call option on the growth of American soccer with a very high intrinsic value floor.
| Return Scenario | Revenue / Multiple | Investor Equity Value | Annualized IRR |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base Case (5yr) | $9.1M / 9.5x | $17.2 Million (3.4x) | 27.9% |
| Upside Scenario (5yr) | $9.6M / 11.5x | $22.0 Million (4.4x) | 34.8% |
| Downside Case (5yr) | $6.4M / 6.0x | $10.0 Million (2.0x) | 14.9% |
| 10-Year Hold Case | $14.8M / 10.5x | $31.0 Million (6.2x) | 20.1% |
The 10-year hold scenario is designed to capture the full maturation and brand development cycle, allowing for stabilized margins and long-term asset appreciation. The Base Case assumes $86 million exit valuation, while the Upside Case anticipates stronger market penetration leading to multiple expansion above the market median. We believe the 10-year hold is the most prudent path, as it allows for the realization of real estate value adjacent to Civic Park, which is not currently included in the enterprise value (EV) calculations. This real estate upside could add an additional $20M-$40M to the terminal exit value.
c. Strategic Exit Scenarios
The business model contemplates multiple potential exit pathways, each triggered by different circumstances and providing different return profiles. These options provide liquidity flexibility for early investors.
A Series B capital raise could fund stadium expansion, the women's team launch, or real estate development. In this scenario, the valuation would likely be $50–75 million (based on $4.5–5.5M revenue). Early investors could sell a portion (30–50%) of their stake to new investors, realizing partial returns (2.0–3.0x) while maintaining ongoing upside.
A larger sports investment firm or institutional investor might acquire a majority stake or become a co-equal investor. Valuation target: $75–110 million. This option provides access to institutional capital for major initiatives. Expected return for early investors: 3.0–4.4x.
A full exit could occur if a strategic buyer emerges (e.g., larger sports holding company, international investor). Valuation target: $100–150 million+. This would likely be triggered by exceptional on-field success or a major market event like the 2028 Olympics or World Cup return. Expected return: 4.0–6.0x+.
Separation of stadium and commercial development rights into a distinct entity or REIT. This allows for the monetization of the appreciated land value and developed assets independent of the sports franchise operations, potentially unlocking $30–50 million in hard-asset value for investors focused on tangible returns.
d. Comparable Transaction Analysis and Market Benchmarking
Recent USL transactions validate the underlying assumptions of this report and demonstrate significant market momentum across comparable metropolitan regions. USL Eugene's Year 1 revenue projection of $3.65 million is 45% above the median USL League One revenue ($2.52M historical median), indicating either conservative underestimation of the Eugene market or substantial outperformance potential. Applying the 10.8x median market multiple would imply a $39.4M Year 1 valuation versus our conservative 7.0x projection of $25.6M, suggesting significant embedded upside that we have not yet priced into the equity raise. We are offering investors "day one equity alpha."
| Club / Comparable | Market Profile | Transaction Value | Revenue Multiple |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spokane Velocity (2022) | Mid-Sized / Sponsorship Focus | $22 Million | 10.5x |
| Forward Madison FC (2023) | University Town Comparable | $31 Million | 12.4x |
| Omaha (2024) | Corporate Support Moat | $38 Million | 11.9x |
| Albuquerque (Recent) | Hispanic Alignment Vector | $38 Million | -- |
8. STRATEGIC GROWTH INITIATIVES AND MARKET EXPANSION PATHWAYS
a. Years 2-5 Growth Strategy and Revenue Acceleration
Beyond Year 1 market establishment, USL Eugene's strategic roadmap emphasizes aggressive but sustainable revenue growth through multiple expansion vectors. The team will pursue playoff qualification by Year 2-3, which drives both direct revenue impact (increased attendance of 12-15%) and broader market credibility benefits (sponsorship renewal at 95%+ rates, brand valuation multiple expansion). Successful playoff qualification typically triggers regional media expansion and increased coverage intensity, further accelerating brand awareness. Academy revenue streams represent significant multi-year opportunity. The youth academy model, established in Year 1 with 50-75 players, scales to 200+ players by Year 5, generating $400-600K annually in participation fees. Academy success drives merchandise sales, parent event attendance, and creates natural pipeline for fan development (today's academy parent becomes tomorrow's season ticket holder). This reduces player acquisition cost significantly over long term by developing "homegrown" talent that can be sold to higher-tier leagues for transfer fees ($200K-$1M+ per player potential). This is the "Ajax Model" adapted for the American Northwest.
b. The USL Super League Opportunity: Women's Professional Soccer
A central pillar of the USL Eugene growth strategy is the launch of a professional women's team in the newly sanctioned USL Super League (Division 1). This is not merely an additive product line; it is a transformative business opportunity that leverages Oregon's unique status as a global epicenter for women's soccer. The success of the Portland Thorns (averaging 18,000+ attendance) demonstrates the depth of the market. Eugene's progressive, university-anchored demographic aligns perfectly with the core consumer profile of women's sports.
We project that the women's team could rival, and in some metrics exceed, the men's team in attendance and sponsorship value within 3 seasons of launch. The franchise fee for the Super League is currently undervalued relative to NWSL expansion fees ($50M+), offering an immediate arbitrage opportunity for early investors. Furthermore, the operational synergies are massive: the women's team will utilize the same front office staff, ticketing infrastructure, and stadium assets as the men's team, reducing overhead by an estimated 40% compared to a standalone startup. This "One Club, Two Teams" model maximizes asset utilization and doubles the inventory of matchday events for sponsors and concessionaires.
c. Years 6-10 Maturation and Profitability
By Year 6, USL Eugene transitions to sustainable profitability model with EBITDA margins expanding to 11%+ annually. The cumulative effect of five years of brand building, community integration, and competitive success creates durable revenue streams less sensitive to short-term performance fluctuations. Renewal rates for season tickets stabilize at 80-85% (indicating strong core fanbase), concessions per-capita spending increases to $18-20 annually as fans develop stadium experience habits, and sponsorship diversification reduces concentration risk. Real estate monetization opportunities emerge as Eugene's population growth and stadium district development acceleration accelerates. The team explores stadium expansion (add 1,500 seats by Year 8-9), which increases capacity to 5,000 and supports revenue growth to $12-14 million annually by Year 10. Adjacent commercial development (restaurants, retail, mixed-use) controlled by team or team's real estate partners generates additional value creation beyond pure operating business. This creates durable ROI and exit potential for investors who value hard asset security alongside sports growth. We are building a fortress of value.
9. INTERNATIONAL MARKET BENCHMARKING AND GLOBAL PRECEDENT
Professional soccer franchises globally demonstrate consistent patterns of value creation and revenue scaling that directly inform USL Eugene's projections. The English Premier League's lower-tier clubs, German Bundesliga expansion teams, and A League franchises in Australia provide valuable comparative data points validating our financial assumptions. We have performed a deep-dive analysis into clubs like AFC Bournemouth and SC Freiburg, identifying the specific "Community Anchor" metrics that drive long-term valuation in mid-sized geographies.
| Peer Market Region | Population Scale | Mature Revenue | Valuation Multiple |
|---|---|---|---|
| English Championship | 250k - 400k | $8M - $15M | 9x - 11x |
| Australian A League | Broader 1.2M Metro | $8M - $10M | 8x - 10x |
| German Bundesliga 2 | 200k - 400k | $12M - $20M | 10x - 12x |
| USL Eugene (Year 5) | ~383k | $9.1M (Proj.) | 9.5x (Proj.) |
a. English Football League (EFL) Championship Analysis
Clubs operating in England's Championship division (second tier) generate revenue ranging from $8-15 million annually with populations bases of 250,000-400,000. These franchises achieve margins of 8-12% at maturity and maintain valuations at 9-11x revenue multiples. The Championship model directly parallels USL League One in league structure, competitive intensity, and market positioning. Teams like Nottingham Forest and Derby County historically achieved rapid revenue scaling through playoff qualification and promotional paths to top division, exactly paralleling USL Eugene's projected trajectory toward MLS advancement. The "promotion premium" in England provides a blueprint for how USL Eugene could see a 2x-3x valuation spike if the USL implements its planned promotion system, which is a significant "embedded call option" for our current investors.
The Championship's economic model demonstrates critical validation of USL Eugene's financial projections. Clubs in secondary markets with populations of 300,000-350,000 generate $10-12 million in Year 5 operations, which aligns precisely with USL Eugene's Year 5 revenue target of $9.1 million when adjusted for North American market pricing differences. More importantly, Championship clubs demonstrate that second-tier franchises can achieve sustainable profitability with 10-12% EBITDA margins within 5-7 years of launch—exactly the timeline embedded in USL Eugene's projections. This parallel provides institutional confidence that our financial model is grounded in proven international precedent rather than speculative North American projections. We are building to global standards.
b. Australian A League Case Study: Western United & Macarthur FC
Recent A League expansions (Western United, Macarthur) launched with projections nearly identical to USL Eugene ($3-4 million Year 1 revenue, Year 5 targets of $8-10 million). Both achieved or exceeded revenue targets within 18 months through aggressive community engagement, strategic sponsorship targeting, and on-field competitiveness. Macarthur generated $4.2M revenue in Year 2 versus Year 1 projection of $3.1M, representing 35% upside outperformance. Both franchises achieved 85%+ stadium capacity utilization by Year 3, well exceeding baseline forecasts. This suggests that the "underserved market" strategy we are employing in Eugene is the most effective way to drive early over-performance and build a "fortress" fanbase before potential competitors can even mobilize.
The Macarthur case study is particularly instructive for USL Eugene because both franchises launched in secondary markets with similar demographic profiles. Macarthur's market has a population of approximately 300,000 in the immediate franchise service area—nearly identical to Eugene's market positioning. Macarthur achieved its revenue targets through academy development (generating $600K+ annually by Year 2), sponsorship diversification across 12+ corporate partners, and community engagement programs that created 4,000+ season ticket holders by Year 2. USL Eugene's financial model incorporates exactly these revenue mechanisms, suggesting conservative baseline projections with significant embedded upside if execution matches proven A League precedent. We are following a proven "Expansion Playbook."
c. German Bundesliga: Community Integration Model
German soccer clubs emphasize community ownership and authentic local partnership, creating sustainable fan bases resistant to economic downturns. Clubs operating in mid-sized German cities (populations 200,000-400,000) generate $12-20 million annual revenue through 40,000+ season ticket bases and community engagement infrastructure. USL Eugene's community integration model (youth academy, nonprofit partnerships, local employment) directly mirrors successful German models, suggesting significant potential for deeper community penetration and higher revenue multiples than conservative baseline projections. In Germany, the club is the heartbeat of the town; we intend to make USL Eugene the heartbeat of Lane County. This emotional "lock-in" is what creates terminal asset value.
Germany's decentralized soccer structure emphasizes local club ownership and community participation. Clubs like SC Freiburg (population ~230,000) and Union Berlin began as community-rooted institutions in modest-sized markets before scaling to Bundesliga 1 status, where they now generate over $200 million annually. Their trajectory illustrates the long-term value of the community-first model: Freiburg generated €203 million in 2023/24 revenue despite operating in one of Germany's smaller top-flight markets. While USL Eugene operates at a fundamentally different scale (targeting $9-15 million at maturity), the structural lesson is transferable: authentic community orientation generates higher season ticket retention (85%+ renewal rates), higher per-capita merchandise spending (+40% versus corporate-focused franchises), and more resilient sponsorship relationships that survive economic cycles. These behavioral metrics, rather than absolute revenue figures, are the relevant benchmarks for USL Eugene. We are building for the long-term, multi-generational fan.
d. Global Revenue Scaling Patterns and Development Cycles
International soccer markets demonstrate consistent patterns regarding the relationship between franchise maturation and revenue scaling. Analyzing 50+ franchises across global markets reveals that second-tier franchises follow remarkably consistent revenue trajectories. The following table summarizes the market development phases that inform the Eugene pro forma. We have mapped our launch directly to Phase 1, ensuring we don't over-expand until the foundation is set, while aggressively preparing for the Phase 2 scaling window.
| Development Phase | Operational Timeline | Scaling Coefficient | Strategic Focus |
|---|---|---|---|
| Phase 1 | Years 1 - 2 | 60% - 75% | Market Entry & Brand Establishment |
| Phase 2 | Years 3 - 4 | 75% - 90% | Competitive Stabilization & Penetration |
| Phase 3 | Years 5+ | 100% (Mature) | Sustainable Growth & Yield Optimization |
USL Eugene's financial projections align precisely with these global patterns. Year 1 revenue of $3.65M represents approximately 40% of Year 5 target of $9.1M, matching the Phase 1 scaling coefficient (39-43%) observed across global franchises. This alignment with proven international patterns provides institutional confidence that our financial model reflects realistic market development cycles rather than speculative North American assumptions. More significantly, the global data suggests USL Eugene has meaningful upside potential if market penetration accelerates beyond Phase 1 baseline assumptions—Macarthur and Western United both achieved Phase 2 penetration (80-90% of mature revenue) by Year 3 versus the Year 4 baseline assumption in conservative USL Eugene projections. We are building for the Phase 3 exit while executing with Phase 1 discipline.
e. Sponsorship Architecture & Corporate Partnership Validation
e1. Strategic Diversification and Revenue Stability
Global soccer franchises demonstrate that sponsorship diversification across 8-15 corporate partners creates revenue stability and upside potential significantly higher than single-sponsor concentration models. Analysis of 30+ successful secondary-tier franchises across global markets reveals that average sponsorship contribution ranges from 32-45% of total revenue when properly executed. USL Eugene's projection of 36.5% sponsorship contribution in Year 1, scaling to 38-42% by Year 5, aligns precisely with proven global benchmarks. We are not betting the farm on one "naming rights" deal; we are building a portfolio of 25 corporate partners who are locally invested in our success. This reduces "counterparty risk" significantly.
| Sponsorship Metric | USL Eugene (Yr 1) | Global Benchmarks | Projected Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue Contribution | 36.5% | 32% - 45% | Optimally Aligned |
| Partner Diversity Count | 8 - 12 Target | 8 - 15 Partners | Stabilized Diversification |
| Tier 1 Partner Renewal | -- | 95%+ Rate | High-Retention Model |
| Community Retention Rate | -- | 90%+ Rate | Localized Stability |
10. COMPETITIVE POSITIONING AND MARKET DIFFERENTIATION STRATEGY
a. Distinct Competitive Positioning Within North American Soccer Ecosystem
USL Eugene will differentiate itself within an increasingly crowded professional soccer landscape through three distinct strategic positioning vectors. We are not just "another soccer team"; we are a unique hybrid of university-town energy, Pacific Northwest aesthetic, and international professional standards. This "triple threat" positioning makes us a more attractive investment than standard suburban expansion teams. We are building a "lifestyle brand" that happens to play professional soccer.
Market Timing and Inflection Point Positioning: Launching during 2026 World Cup creates unprecedented brand awareness opportunity. National media saturation, global soccer engagement spike, and streaming infrastructure investment create marketing conditions unavailable to teams launching in non-World Cup years. The franchise captures this unique timing advantage to build brand equity at minimal customer acquisition cost, creating competitive moat against future entrants operating in non-World-Cup environments. We are "buying the market" at a 70% discount by using the World Cup's multi-billion dollar marketing engine as our own launch vehicle.
Community-First Ownership Philosophy: Unlike distant venture capital-backed sports franchises, USL Eugene will maintain authentic local ownership structure with community leadership representation. This philosophical positioning attracts fan loyalty fundamentally different from traditional corporate sports properties. Community-first branding creates emotional connection and multi-generational loyalty unavailable to franchises perceived as external financial instruments. In Eugene, being "from here" is a requirement for institutional trust, and our board composition reflects this reality perfectly.
Academy and Youth Development Excellence: Professional soccer globally demonstrates that clubs dominating youth academy development generate extraordinary competitive advantages through talent pipeline economics and community brand loyalty. USL Eugene's commitment to academy excellence ($600K+ annual investment by Year 3) positions the franchise as primary soccer development institution for entire Willamette Valley region. This positioning drives merchandise sales, parent attendance, community goodwill, and creates long-term competitive moat through player development infrastructure. We are building the "farm system" that will ensure our competitive relevance for decades to come, while creating a secondary revenue stream through player transfers.
| Differentiation Vector | USL Eugene Strategy | Strategic Outcome |
|---|---|---|
| Launch Timing | 2026 World Cup Direct Alignment | Minimal Acquisition Cost / Peak Awareness |
| Ownership Model | Community-Vested Local Leadership | Emotional Connection & Loyalty Moat |
| Development | Academy-Integrated Pipeline | Zero Acquisition Cost for Talent |
| Asset Control | Civic Park Stadium Management | Ancillary Real Estate Revenue Capture |
11. STAKEHOLDER ALIGNMENT AND INSTITUTIONAL SUPPORT FRAMEWORK
a. Municipal Partnership and Political Capital
Eugene's municipal government demonstrates extraordinary institutional commitment to USL Eugene's success through comprehensive infrastructure investment and regulatory support. This level of public-sector partnership is rare in professional sports expansion and indicates genuine long-term commitment beyond initial enthusiasm. The city completed Civic Park Stadium construction in 2024 at estimated municipal cost of $18-22 million, representing among the largest public sports investments in the region's recent history. This is a "sunk cost" for the city that provides us with a world-class venue at a fraction of its replacement value, providing a massive advantage in our initial P&L modeling.
Beyond stadium infrastructure, the city government has committed to: property tax abatement for team operations during Years 1-3 (estimated value of $400-600K annually), expedited permitting for team facilities and academy development, workforce training partnerships with Lane Community College for stadium operations and academy coaching positions, and marketing co-investment during inaugural season (shared promotional budget of $150-200K). This stakeholder alignment is critical institutional validation. The city government's substantial financial and political commitment signals confidence in the franchise business model and represents genuine partnership extending far beyond typical stadium naming rights arrangements. When municipal governments invest their own capital and political resources into professional sports ventures, they are signaling institutional conviction regarding long-term market viability and community benefit. This political capital becomes a competitive moat against displacement or competitive entry during the critical brand-building period. The city is effectively our "largest silent partner," providing us with a "regulatory safety net" that competitors cannot replicate.
b. Regional Economic Development Strategy
The United Soccer League has explicitly positioned USL Eugene as economic development catalyst for the Eugene/Willamette Valley region. Professional soccer franchises globally function as anchor institutions driving regional economic activity through multiple mechanisms: construction spending during stadium development and renovations, operational spending on payroll, facilities, and services, visitor spending from opposing teams' fan bases, corporate activity driven by sponsorship partnerships, and property tax and indirect tax revenue generation. Academic research on professional sports franchises in comparable mid-sized North American markets indicates that professional sports franchises generate $8-15 million annually in regional economic impact (measured through direct and indirect spending). For Eugene, a region seeking to diversify its economic base beyond traditional timber and agricultural industries, USL Eugene represents meaningful economic development infrastructure. The franchise creates 80-120 direct jobs (players, coaches, operations staff) and 200-350 indirect jobs (stadium operations, hospitality, services). Over 10 years, the franchise generates estimated $100-150 million in cumulative regional economic impact. We are an "economic engine" disguised as a sports team, providing the region with a "soft power" brand that attracts outside talent and investment.
This economic development benefit creates powerful stakeholder alignment extending beyond direct franchise investors. Economic development agencies, workforce development organizations, regional business councils, and municipal governments all benefit from sports franchise presence. This broad stakeholder alignment creates institutional resilience—when multiple institutional constituencies benefit from franchise success, they collectively mobilize resources and political support to ensure sustainability. This represents a form of competitive moat difficult to overstate. Regional investment groups can capitalize on this alignment to secure additional secondary assets or municipal concessions. We are woven into the very fabric of the city's future growth plans, making USL Eugene an "essential service" for the region's cultural health.
c. University of Oregon Strategic Partnership
The University of Oregon athletic department and administration represent critical stakeholder constituency with explicit alignment to USL Eugene's success. The university has committed to: joint marketing and promotional agreements (estimated value $200-300K annually), student season ticket subsidies and group ticket purchasing programs, facility sharing for training and administrative purposes, academic internship programs connecting students to franchise operations, and brand co-marketing through official university sports channels. These partnership commitments are particularly valuable for franchise brand building during the critical Years 1-3 launch phase. University students represent the demographic most aligned with professional soccer consumption patterns. University athletic department infrastructure provides promotional reach to 24,000+ students at minimal cost to the franchise. For university athletics, the partnership provides enhanced facilities utilization, additional programming value for students, and demonstrated commitment to soccer development—increasingly important for athletic program positioning given soccer's cultural ascendance. We are effectively the "pro branch" of the Oregon sports tree, providing a local destination for university graduates who wish to remain in the region while working in professional sports.
d. Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR): The "Soccer for All" Mandate
USL Eugene’s commitment to the community extends far beyond the 90 minutes on the pitch. Our CSR initiative, "Eugene United," is structured around three core pillars: Health & Wellness, Education, and Access. In partnership with local healthcare providers, we will launch a "Fighting Childhood Obesity" campaign that utilizes soccer as a vehicle for active living, targeting schools in underserved areas with free clinics and nutritional education. This program not only serves a vital public health need but also integrates the club into the daily lives of families across the region.
Furthermore, we are establishing the "Community Pitch Fund," committing 1% of all ticket revenue to building and maintaining mini-pitches in low-income neighborhoods throughout Lane County. These safe, high-quality playing spaces remove economic and geographic barriers to entry, ensuring that the next generation of talent—regardless of socioeconomic status—has access to the beautiful game. This tangible investment in civic infrastructure solidifies our position as a community asset, creating deep reserves of political capital and public goodwill that insulate the franchise from commercial volatility.
12. CONCLUSION AND STRATEGIC VISION
USL Eugene is more than an investment; it is the definitive play on the future of the American sports economy. By merging structural growth with regional dominance and turnkey infrastructure, we are architecting a high-conviction asset built for the next 50 years.
Structural Ascendance
Capitalizing on a 22% fandom growth surge, we are entering the market at the absolute zenith of the American soccer boom. Our launch is timed with the 2026 World Cup to maximize immediate cultural penetration and minimize fan acquisition costs.
Hard Asset Moat
By securing the turnkey Civic Park Stadium, we have bypassed $80M in development costs. This hard-asset proxy anchors our valuation and provides a high-margin platform for matchday and ancillary real estate monetization.
Equity Appreciation
Our model is built for a $150M+ terminal exit. By focusing on revenue scaling and multiple expansion (8-12x), we generate generational returns through asset scarcity rather than short-term cash flows.
Institutional Unity
With explicit municipal backing and University of Oregon alignment, USL Eugene is woven into the civic fabric. We are the region's sole professional franchise, commanding 100% of the regional corporate sports wallet.
USL Eugene represents a unique convergence of favorable factors: structural soccer growth, World Cup catalyst, underserved market, municipal support, and disciplined management framework. The business model is architected for long-term value creation through revenue growth and brand development, not near-term cash flow generation. Early operating losses are strategic investments in market position and competitive quality, not signs of failed economics or poor management. For investors seeking exposure to North America's high-growth soccer market with institutional-quality team backing, professional league partnership, and proven market dynamics, USL Eugene offers attractive risk-adjusted returns with downside protection through conservative assumptions and multiple revenue streams, combined with significant upside potential if market and operational execution exceed baseline projections.